Monetary Policy Choices in Emerging Market Economies: The Case of High Productivity Growth
构建了一个新兴市场经济体的一般均衡模型，研究可贸易与非可贸易部门生产率增长差异导致的实际汇率升值（巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应），并分析不同政策规则对通胀、汇率和福利的影响。
We develop a general equilibrium model of an emerging market economy where productivity growth differentials between tradable and non‐tradable sectors result in an equilibrium appreciation of the real exchange rate—the so‐called Balassa‐Samuelson effect. The paper explores the dynamic properties of this economy and the welfare implications of alternative policy rules. We show that the real exchange rate appreciation limits the range of policy rules that, with a given probability, keep inflation and exchange rate within predetermined numerical targets. We also find that the B–S effect raises by an order of magnitude the welfare loss associated with policy rules that prescribe active exchange rate management.