审视前景理论

Looking at prospect theory

STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT JOURNAL · 2010
被引 124
人大 AFT50UTD24ABS 4*

中文导读

指出前景理论在战略管理领域的应用存在重大误解,其价值函数预测与现有文献相反,且大多数企业选择应被视为混合赌局,预测依赖于被忽视的参数和选择特征。

Abstract

Abstract This paper demonstrates that prospect theory's (PT) predictions differ dramatically from what strategy scholars have inferred. PT's value function predicts negative risk‐return associations for high performers and positive for low performers, directly contrary to the strategy literature. In addition, PT's isolation assumption means most firm choices should appear as mixed gambles. Prior PT‐based theorizing in strategy implicitly assumed that the firm faced unmixed gambles. Finally, it demonstrates that PT does not make the general predictions most strategy researchers have assumed, but rather PT's predictions depend on a full range of parametric and choice characteristics that strategy scholars have ignored. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

战略管理行为经济学决策理论风险分析