Output and unemployment dynamics in the United States: 1950–1985
基于美国1950–1985年数据，用双变量VAR模型分析GNP增长与失业率的互动、产出冲击的持续性，并将产出分解为趋势与周期，为奥肯定律提供新视角。
Abstract For US data over 1950–1985 the stochastic components of GNP growth and the unemployment rate appear to be stationary, and there is substantial feedback between these variables. The unconditional mean rate of unemployment in a joint model thus provides a natural benchmark in discussions of the ‘business cycle’. A bivariate VAR model is used to describe output–unemployment dynamics, to estimate the degree of persistence of output innovations, and to decompose output into trend and cycle. The bivariate results are interpreted using a restricted VAR and it is shown that a closely related cyclical measure can be obtained directly from the Okun's Law equation.