Recent Exchange Rate Experience and Proposals for Reform
回顾了外汇市场表现不佳的担忧，包括高波动性、无法由基本面解释、预期偏差等七项学术发现，并评述了固定汇率、资本管制等激进改革方案，认为当前有管理的浮动汇率制虽有问题但优于替代方案。
The paper reviews the grounds for fears that foreign exchange markets are not behaving as well as they should: recent misalignments and cries, and seven sets of academic findings. (1) Exchange rate volatility is high, (2) with possible adverse effects. (3) Volatility cannot be explained by observable fundamentals, (4) and changes when the regime changes, even without a change in volatility of fundamentals. (5) Expectations appear to be biased. (6) Short-term expectations are destabilizing. And (7) the effect of changes in monetary policy on the exchange rate is drawn out over time, and is not instantaneous. The paper then reviews proposals for radical reform. Some entail "irrevocably fixed" exchange rates, some capital controls, and some formal institutions for intervention in the foreign exchange market. The conclusion is that the present system, floating, managed with occasional intervention, for all its flaws, is probably better than the alternatives.