When Kahneman meets Manski: Using dual systems of reasoning to interpret subjective expectations of equity returns
利用1999-2001年经济预期调查数据，借鉴卡尼曼的双重推理原理，根据受访者对认知偏差的敏感度分类，发现预期形成中存在大量未观测到的异质性，并构建了一个预期形成模型。
Abstract To understand how decisions to invest in stocks are taken, economists need to elicit expectations regarding risk–return tradeoff. One of the few surveys which has elicited such expectations is the Survey of Economic Expectations in 1999–2001. Using the data from this survey, Dominitz and Manski find considerable heterogeneity across respondents that cannot be explained by simple models of expectations formation. Adapting a principle of dual reasoning borrowed from Kahneman, this paper classifies respondents according to their sensitivity to some pathologies. We find a substantial amount of unobserved heterogeneity between the least and the most sensitive respondents. We then sketch a model of expectations formation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.