An Indicator of Monthly GDP and an Early Estimate of Quarterly GDP Growth
提出一种正式且连贯的方法，将英国现有的月度产出数据汇总为GDP估计，虽不如直接测量准确，但比非正式推断更可靠，对经济活动的估计效果令人满意。
A range of monthly series are currently available giving indications of short-term movements in output in the UK. The main aim of this paper is to suggest a formal and coherent procedure for grossing these monthly data up to represent the whole of GDP. Although the resultant estimates of GDP would be worse than those obtained by direct measurement, they should be more satisfactory than simply making an informal inference from whatever monthly data are available. Our examination of the efficacy of the method for estimation of the state of economic activity indicates a rather satisfactory outcome. Copyright 2005 Royal Economic Society.