Does Market Timing Contribute to the Cattle Cycle?
检验市场择时效应对牛周期的影响，发现1974-98年间恒定库存策略的回报优于代表性生产者，表明市场择时是牛周期的驱动因素之一。
Abstract Recent evidence suggests that cyclical cattle inventories are driven by exogenous shocks. This article examines a second possible contributing factor to the cattle cycle: a market timing effect that arises from individual attempts to maintain countercyclical inventories. The model uncovers an important conceptual point: to the extent that cycles are driven by exogenous shocks, a representative producer should outperform one who maintains a constant inventory; whereas, for cycles induced by market timing, a representative producer should underperform one with a constant inventory. Simulated net returns over 1974−98 reveal that a constant‐inventory manager significantly outperformed the representative U.S. producer, which indicates that market timing influences the cattle cycle.