On the Failure of Purchasing Power Parity for Bilateral Exchange Rates after 1973
通过引入其他经济变量提高检验效力,发现浮动汇率时期双边实际汇率存在均值回归的强证据,挑战了购买力平价失效的普遍观点。
Point estimates suggest mean reversion in real exchange rates; however, it still remains uncomfortable that models without any mean reversion are often compatible with data from the floating period. Studies with data over longer periods find mean reversion, but at the cost of mixing in data from earlier exchange rate arrangements. Pooling the floating period data potentially mixes country pairs with and without mean reversion. We examine tests for mean reversion for individual country pairs where greater power against close alternatives is gained through modeling other economic variables with the real exchange rate. By increasing the power of the tests we find strong evidence of mean reversion.