Uncertainty, Real Options, and Cost Behavior: Evidence from Washington State Hospitals
研究1983年医疗保险报销改革如何增加医院收入不确定性，并导致医院更倾向于采用高变动成本、低固定成本的技术，通过华盛顿州59家医院831个部门1977-1994年数据验证。
ABSTRACT This study tests an implication of the real‐options theory of investment, that uncertainty leads firms to prefer technologies with low fixed and high variable costs. In 1983, a change in Medicare reimbursement increased the uncertainty of revenues for hospitals. Using a sample of 831 departments in 59 Washington State hospitals over the 1977–1994 period, we find that the ratio of variable to total costs increased after 1983. This increase is not attributable to a gradual increase in the ratio over time: We estimate a significant increase after 1983 even after controlling for a time trend. Further, we find a greater increase in the variable‐to‐total cost ratio for hospitals that had higher percentages of Medicare patients, increasing our confidence in the conclusion that the change in cost behavior is attributable to Medicare's change in reimbursement.