Are Farrowing Intentions Rational Forecasts?
检验美国农业部发布的生猪养殖户母猪产仔意向数据是否为实际产仔量的理性预测，发现一季和两季后的意向都不是理性预测，并讨论了计量方法和理性预期假说的含义。
Abstract This paper tests whether quarterly data on hog farmers' sow‐farrowing intentions released in Hogs and Pigs are rational forecasts of actual farrowings. The empirical results show that neither one‐ nor two‐quarter‐ahead intentions are rational forecasts. Econometric methods and the implications of the empirical results for the rational expectations hypothesis are also discussed.