The Growing Gap in Life Expectancy: Using the Future Elderly Model to Estimate Implications for Social Security and Medicare
使用未来老年人模型，估算教育及收入导致的死亡率差距扩大如何影响美国社会保障和医疗保险的累进性，发现若当前趋势持续，两项计划的累进性将显著下降，成本也会增加。
Mortality gradients by education and income have been rising in the United States and elsewhere. However, their impact on Social Security progressivity has received relatively little attention, and the impact on Medicare has received effectively none. This paper uses the Future Elderly Model to estimate the effects of increased mortality gaps on the progressivity of Social Security and Medicare for those born between 1928 and 1990. It finds significant reductions in progressivity of both programs if current mortality trends persist and noticeable effects on total program costs. The effects are large enough to warrant more attention from both policy-makers and researchers.