Putting the New Keynesian DSGE Model to the Real‐Time Forecasting Test
比较了中等规模新凯恩斯DSGE模型与专业预测者调查及DSGE-VAR模型对美国经济的实时预测质量，发现DSGE模型在结合调查的即时预测后表现接近或优于调查。
The paper compares the quality of real‐time forecasts from a standard medium‐scale New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to those from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and DSGE‐VARs. It is shown that the DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the U.S. economy. This is especially true for forecasts conditional on SPF nowcasts, in which case the forecasting power of the DSGE turns out to be similar or better than that of the SPF for all the variables and horizons. An important weakness of the benchmark DSGE model is the poor absolute performance of its point forecasts and rather badly calibrated forecast densities.