Bubble, Bubble, Where's the Housing Bubble?
提出用租金和房价数据估算房屋基础价值的方法，分析十个大都市区的配对数据，发现多数城市当前房价并非泡沫，购房仍是长期投资的好选择。
Housing-bubble discussions generally rely on indirect barometers such as rapidly increasing prices, unrealistic expectations of future price increases, and rising ratios of housing price indexes to household income indexes. These indirect measures cannot answer the key question of whether housing prices are justified by the anticipated cash flow. We show how to estimate the fundamental value of a house and use unique rent and price data for matched single-family homes in ten metropolitan areas to illustrate this approach. These data indicate that the current housing bubble is not, in fact, a bubble in most of these cities in that, under a variety of plausible assumptions, buying a house at current market prices still appears to be an attractive long-term investment. Our results also demonstrate the flaw in models that gauge bubbles by comparing movements in housing price indexes to movements in other indexes or to values predicted by regression models. 1 Bubble, Bubble, Where’s the Housing Bubble? U. S. housing prices have risen by about 50 % in the past five years, and more than 100 % in some hot markets. Many knowledgeable observers believe that we are in the midst of a