Do economic cycles have a permanent effect on population health? Revisiting the Brenner hypothesis
指出布伦纳假说及其后续研究忽略了宏观数据的时间序列特性，通过误差修正模型分析美国1948-1996年数据，发现经济周期对人口健康有永久性影响，但经济增长和失业率上升反而降低了总体死亡率。
The Brenner hypothesis is essentially that economic cycles, characterized by unemployment and fluctuations in per capita income can have profound negative implications for population health. A number of subsequent studies have identified shortcomings in Brenner's model and have reported results that for the most part contradict his results. This paper argues that the failure to account for the time-series properties (i.e. the potential for unit root behaviour) of macro level data is a key omission in Brenner's and other subsequent studies. To address this omission an error correction model specification was applied to American data for the period 1948-1996. The findings suggest that economic cycles do have a permanent effect on population health. Paradoxically, they also suggest that economic growth and increases in unemployment reduce aggregate mortality risk. A need for measures of economic change that are perhaps more sensitive to the effects of economic cycles on groups that may be at greater risk of unemployment was identified.