Hog Cycles and Countercyclical Production Response
研究生猪价格与产量的周期现象，发现外生冲击会引发可预测的周期，但逆周期生产者最终会消除这一周期，且周期证据越强其持续可能性越低。
The cycle in prices and output is not a permanent fixture of the pork industry. Exogenous shocks occasionally give rise to predictable cycles in pork prices, but these are eventually eliminated in a manner that is consistent with the existence of countercyclical producers. It normally takes several revolutions of the cycle before a sufficient number of countercyclical producers notice that a cycle has begun and are able to alter their production patterns sufficiently to eliminate it. Consequently, the more compelling the evidence is in favor of a cycle the less likely it is to continue.