校准的经验基础

The Empirical Foundations of Calibration

Journal of Economic Perspectives · 1996
被引 367
人大 A-ABS 4

中文导读

探讨了Kydland和Prescott倡导的校准方法的隐含假设,质疑微观估计是否足以校准宏观模型,并建议报告参数不确定性和规范敏感性,以增强经验基础的可信度。

Abstract

Interest in simulating recently developed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models of the economy stimulated a demand for parameters. This has given rise to calibration as advocated by Finn E. Kydland and Edward C. Prescott (1982). This paper explores the implicit assumptions underlying their calibration method. The authors question that there is a ready supply of micro estimates available to calibrate macroeconomic models. Measures of parameter uncertainty and specification sensitivity should be routinely reported. They propose a more symbiotic role for calibration as providing signals to microeconomists about important gaps in knowledge, which when filled will solidify the empirical underpinning, improving the credibility of the quantitative output.

校准方法参数不确定性微观估计宏观模型