Trends in Rainfall and Economic Growth in Africa: A Neglected Cause of the African Growth Tragedy
利用跨国面板气候数据，研究发现降雨减少是撒哈拉以南非洲国家经济增长缓慢的重要原因，若降雨未减少，非洲人均GDP差距可缩小15%至40%。
We examine the role of rainfall trends in poor growth performance of sub-Saharan African nations relative to other developing countries, using a new cross-country panel climatic data set in an empirical economic growth framework. Our results show that rainfall has been a significant determinant of poor economic growth for African nations but not for other countries. Depending on the benchmark measure of potential rainfall, we estimate that the direct impact under the scenario of no decline in rainfall would have resulted in a reduction of between around 15% and 40% of today's gap in African GDP per capita relative to the rest of the developing world. © 2010 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.