Risk, learning, and technology adoption
利用美国谷物农民的实验和调查数据，研究决策者如何学习和使用信息，并分析风险偏好、学习规则与转基因种子采纳之间的关系，发现农民学习方式多样，贝叶斯学习并不普遍。
This article explores how decision makers learn and use information, with an application to the adoption of biotechnology in agriculture. The empirical analysis relies on experimental and survey data measuring risk preferences, learning processes, and the adoption of genetically modified (GM) seeds among U.S. grain farmers. While controlling for risk aversion, we link individual learning rules with the cognitive abilities of each decision maker and their actual GM adoption decisions. We find evidence that very few individuals are Bayesian learners, and that the population of farmers is quite heterogeneous in terms of learning rules. This suggests that Bayesian learning (as commonly assumed in the analysis of agricultural technology adoption) is not an appropriate characterization. In addition, we do not find a strong relationship between observed learning styles and the timing of GM seed adoption. To the extent that learning is a key part of the process of technology adoption, this suggests the presence of much unobserved heterogeneity in learning among farmers.