Leveling the Peaks and Troughs in the Demographic Cycle: An Application to School Enrollment Rates
探讨美国人口周期与入学率的关系，发现个体通过教育时机选择来平抑人口波峰波谷，并检验了婴儿潮出生时间对入学率的非对称影响，解释了1970年代入学率骤降现象。
The relationship between demographic cycles and school enrollment rates in the United States is explored. The authors show how individuals act so as to fill in the peaks and troughs of the demographic cycle by timing their entry into the labor market through education. It is suggested that those born at the beginning of the baby boom are likely to have the highest school enrollment rates while those born at the end are likely to have the lowest rates. This asymmetric demographic effect is tested in a time series equation. [The] model helps to explain the surprisingly steep decline in school enrollment rates during the 1970s. (EXCERPT)