Stochastic Modeling of Short‐Term Cattle Operations
用风险中性的随机动态规划模型，检验科罗拉多州东北部一岁牛经营中单季序贯决策的确定性等价性质，发现高放养密度下因牧草集约利用而拒绝确定性等价，且灵活营销策略的高密度方案预期净现值更高。
Abstract A risk‐neutral stochastic dynamic programming model was used to test the certainty equivalence (CE) property in sequential decisions over a single season in a northeastern Colorado yearling operation. Stochastic rainfall represented risk in forage production, and stochastic steer prices represented marketing risk. Certainty equivalence held when cattle prices were stochastic and risk was increased as cattle sales were postponed. Intensive forage utilization as the grazing season progressed caused CE rejection at high stocking densities. High stocking densities with flexible marketing strategies had larger expected net present values than low stocking densities with fixed marketing strategies.