Foreign Subsidization and Excess Capacity
基于Staiger和Wolak的周期性倾销模型，利用1979-2002年美国钢铁进口数据，检验了外国补贴导致的周期性及结构性产能过剩效应，发现这些效应仅局限于少数国家-产品组合，不足以解释美国钢铁业的长期衰退。
The U.S. steel industry has long held that foreign subsidization and excess capacity has led to its long-run demise, yet no one has formally examined this hypothesis. In this paper, we incorporate foreign subsidization considerations into a model based on Staiger and Wolak's (1992) cyclical-dumping framework and illustrate testable implications of both cyclical excess capacity and structural excess capacity stemming from foreign subsidization. We then use detailed product- and foreign country-level data on steel exports to the U.S. market from 1979 through 2002 to estimate these excess capacity effects. The results provide strong evidence of both cyclical and structural excess capacity effects for exports to the U.S. market. However, the effects are confined to such a narrow range of country-product combinations that it is unlikely that such effects were a significant factor in the fortunes of U.S. steel firms over the past decades.