An Economist’s Perspective on Probability Matching
澄清概率匹配现象的含义及其对效用最大化假说的挑战，综述重复二元选择实验，并比较不同理论模型的预测差异。
The experimental phenomenon known as ‘probability matching’ is often offered as evidence in support of adaptive learning models and against the idea that people maximise their expected utility. Recent interest in dynamic‐based equilibrium theories means the term re‐appears in Economics. However, there seems to be conflicting views on what is actually meant by the term and about the validity of the data. The purpose of this paper is therefore threefold: First, to introduce today’s readers to what is meant by probability matching, and in particular to clarify which aspects of this phenomenon challenge the utility‐maximisation hypothesis. Second, to familiarise the reader with the different theoretical approaches to behaviour in such circumstances, and to focus on the differences in predictions between these theories in light of recent advances. Third, to provide a comprehensive survey of repeated, binary choice experiments.