Projecting Debt Servicing Capacity of Developing Countries
基于1981年数据，构建了一个包含偿债率、外汇储备与进口比等指标的模型，用于预测发展中国家未来能否按时还外债，辅助国家风险评估。
This article, Projecting Debt Servicing Capacity of Developing Countries, was reprinted with permission from the December 1981 issue of the Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis. Many less developed countries rely on foreign loans to fuel their economic development. In the wake of the oil crisis of 1973, many countries have experienced enormous growth in external indebtedness. Some have required loan deferral or rearrangement. This article aims to devise an empirically based composite indicator of a country's ability and willingness to honor its foreign debt service obligations during some future time period. The examined factors are the debt service ratio, the foreign exchange reserves to imports ratio, the ratio of net noncommercial foreign exchange inflows to debt service payments, the ratio of commercial foreign exchange inflows to debt service payments, the exports to gross national product ratio, and the real per capita gross national product to U.S. per capita gross national product ratio. The model projects a country's debt servicing capacity based on empirical data. The predictive model is intended to complement, not replace, a thorough country analysis which examines nonquantifiable factors.