Leaves and Cigarettes: Modelling the Tobacco Industry, with Applications to Italy and Greece
本书研究了烟草行业整体，特别是意大利和希腊的情况，比较了三种计量模型对意大利1951-2001年数据的预测效果，发现非结构向量误差修正模型在1995-2001年价格和产量预测上表现最佳。
This book aims to ‘examine the whole tobacco industry in general, and the Italian and Greek ones in particular’, in view of decreased tobacco consumption (in Europe, presumably), and ‘the possibility to grow tobacco for other purposes, thanks to biotechnologies’. There are three more or less equal parts, each describing a different modelling exercise. The first part, by Fantazzini and the editor, begins with a review of various econometric model types and estimation techniques, two specific ‘macro’ models—of the US tobacco sector (Vernon et al. (1969)) and the CAP grain regime (Thompson et al., 2002)—and ‘micro’ and ‘a-theoretical’ (non-structural) modelling. On page 65, it turns to the Italian tobacco sector and the EU commodity regime (eight pages in total), before describing (in 18 pages) the application of all three reviewed model types to an Italian dataset for 1951–2001. It is concluded that the non-structural vector error correction (VEC) model best forecasts prices and quantities for the period 1995–2001.