Planning to cheat: EU fiscal policy in real time
利用欧洲稳定与趋同计划的实时数据，分析欧盟各国财政计划的制定与执行，发现执行偏差随预测期延长而增大，且强有力的国家财政机构有助于提升计划雄心与执行效果。
Using real-time data from Europe’s Stability and Convergence Programs, we explore how fiscal plans and their implementation in the EU are determined. We find that (1) implemented budgetary adjustment falls systematically short of planned adjustment and this shortfall increases with the projection horizon, (2) variability in the eventual fiscal outcomes is dominated by the implementation errors, (3) there is a limited role for ‘traditional’ political variables, (4) stock-flow adjustments are more important when plans are more ambitious, and (5), most importantly, both the ambition in fiscal plans and their implementation benefit from stronger national fiscal institutions. We emphasize also the importance of credible plans for the eventual fiscal outcomes.– Roel Beetsma, Massimo Giuliodori and Peter Wierts