Investment in technological innovations: An option pricing approach
构建了一个模型，研究企业面对一系列技术创新时的最优投资策略，考虑了创新到达时间和盈利能力的随机性以及学习效应，得出四种投资策略，并用于预测企业实际行为。
This paper develops a model of the optimal investment strategy for a firm confronted with a sequence of technological innovations. We incorporate many of the most important characteristics of real-world technology markets. For example, we permit innovations to be stochastic in their arrival times and their profitability. We also incorporate learning so that firms adopting current innovations become better able to benefit from future innovations. The model yields four distinct investment strategies. The model is then used to predict actual firm policy. These implications are discussed and compared with observed firm behavior.