The Tax‐smoothing Hypothesis: Evidence from Sweden, 1952–1999
用瑞典中央政府1952-1999年数据检验巴罗的税收平滑假说，发现该模型能解释约60%的预算盈余变动，对研究政府财政行为有参考价值。
Abstract This paper tests Barro's (1979) tax‐smoothing hypothesis using Swedish central government data for the period 1952–1999. According to the tax‐smoothing hypothesis, the government sets the budget surplus equal to expected changes in government expenditure. When expenditure is expected to increase, the government runs a budget surplus, and when expenditure is expected to fall, the government runs a budget deficit. The empirical evidence suggests that the model provides a useful benchmark and that tax‐smoothing behavior can explain about 60 percent of the variability in the Swedish central government budget surplus.