Dynamics of Agricultural Technology Adoption: Age Structure, Reversibility, and Uncertainty
构建了一个包含技术年龄、可逆投资、可变投入产出和随机价格的农业技术采纳动态模型，以加州灌溉棉花生产为例，发现技术年龄效应可解释技术扩散延迟，并探讨了不可逆投资假设对区域政策的影响。
We develop a dynamic model of technology adoption that generalizes previous literature by incorporating technology age, reversible investment, variable inputs and outputs, and stochastic prices. The model is calibrated for irrigated cotton production in California. Optimal investment exhibits a significant vintage capital effect which provides a new candidate explanation for delayed technology diffusion. We show that the hurdle rate derived by option value models can be partially explained by the assumption of irreversible investment, and simulations demonstrate this assumption has regional policy relevance. Uncertainty affects optimal investment but has a declining effect with technology age.