Dynamic Analysis of Consumer Response to Marketing Strategies
提出一种整合随机品牌选择、创新扩散、测试市场分析和新产品设计的消费者反应建模方法，使品牌选择模型能纳入意识、试用和信息流等扩散现象，并给出实用估计步骤，帮助营销科学家根据管理问题定制分析。
This paper develops a methodology for modeling consumer response that integrates previous research in stochastic brand selection, diffusion of innovation, test market analysis, and new product design. The methodology makes it practical to extend brand selection models to include diffusion phenomena such as awareness, trial, and information flow. Purchase timing and brand selection are interdependent and both phenomena depend jointly on managerial controls such as advertising, coupons, price-off promotion, product positioning, and consumer characteristics. Within this general structure, we provide practical estimation procedures (a least squares approximation to the maximum likelihood estimates) to determine the parameters which link managerial controls to consumer response. Closed form solutions are derived for cumulative awareness, cumulative trial, penetration, expected sales, and purchases due to promotion—all as a function of time. We also provide simplified expressions for equilibrium (t → ∞) market share. Tradeoffs among complexity of the diffusion process, number of managerial variables, nonstationarity, complexity of purchase timing, consumer segmentation, and sample size are made explicit so that the marketing scientist can customize his analyses to the managerial problems that he faces. The effects of sample size, data interval frequency, and collinearity in the explanatory variables are investigated with simulations based on a five-state consumer response process which depends on 8–10 marketing variables. The paper closes with a brief description of the application and predictive test of a consumer response model based on the methodology.