The Determinants of Individual Unemployment Durations in an Era of High Unemployment
分析了1978年和1987年两批男性失业者离开失业的概率，发现1987年失业收入的影响更弱，而当地失业率的负面效应更强。
This paper presents the results of an econometric analysis of the conditional probability of leaving unemployment for two male inflow cohorts entering unemployment at very different points in time: 1978 and 1987. The effect of income while unemployed is found to be much weaker for the 1987 cohort, an elasticity of -0.1 compared with -0.4, and is only found to be significant for teenagers and in the first three months of a spell. Demand constraints, measured by the local unemployment rate, are found to have a stronger negative effect on the exit probability for the 1987 cohort than in 1978.