Decoupled Farm Payments and the Role of Base Acreage and Yield Updating Under Uncertainty
研究了在价格、产量和政策不确定性下，风险厌恶农民对基期面积和产量更新预期的耦合效应如何影响生产决策，发现更新概率从0增至1时最优面积和产量分别增加6.25%和0.134%。
Abstract We analyze the coupling effect of expectations about base acreage and yield updating in future farm policy on production decisions in the presence of price, yield, and policy uncertainty for a risk‐averse farmer producing a single crop. The farmer receives market revenue and government payments. Using stochastic dynamic programming, optimum decisions under present value calculations positively link current acreage and fertilizer decisions to future government payments through expected updates of base acreage and yield in the future regime. Moving from a zero probability of updating to a probability of one increases optimum acreage and yield by 6.25% and 0.134%, respectively.