FORECASTING CORPORATE REVENUE AND PROFIT: TIME‐SERIES MODELS VERSUS MANAGEMENT AND ANALYSTS
比较了九种时间序列模型在预测公司收入和利润方面的准确性，并与管理层和金融分析师的预测进行对比，基于阿姆斯特丹证券交易所样本数据，从预测误差、偏差和不确定性三个维度评估。
This paper reports on the forecast accuracy of nine models which have been used to describe the time‐series of corporate revenues and profits. It also compares the performance of these models with that of management and financial analysts. All comparisons are carried out not only on the basis of prediction errors, but also by an analysis of the forecasting bias involved, and the specification of uncertainty. The data pertain to a representative sample of companies listed on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange.