Predicting the Quality and Prices of Bordeaux Wine
通过分析波尔多葡萄酒产区的天气数据，预测不同年份葡萄酒的质量和价格，并评估了市场效率、气候变化对葡萄酒行业的影响以及专家意见在定价中的作用。
Bordeaux wines have been made in much the same way for centuries. This article shows that the variability in the quality and prices of Bordeaux vintages is predicted by the weather that created the grapes. The price equation provides a measure of the real rate of return to holding wines (about 2-3% per annum) and implies far greater variability in the early or 'en primeur' wine prices than is observed. The analysis provides a useful basis for assessing market inefficiency, the effect of climate change on the wine industry and the role of expert opinion in determining wine prices. Copyright © The Author(s). Journal compilation © Royal Economic Society 2008.