A Two-Sector Approach to Modeling U.S. NIPA Data
提出用两部门方法(耐用品技术进步快于其他部门)替代单部门索洛-拉姆齐模型,以更好地解释美国经济长期行为,并展示如何建模国民收入与生产账户中的链式加总变量。
The one-sector Solow–Ramsey model is the most popular model of longrun economic growth. This paper argues that a two-sector approach, in which technological progress in the production of durable goods exceeds that in the rest of the economy, provides a far better picture of the longrun behavior of the U.S. economy. The paper shows how to use the twosector approach to model the real chain-aggregated variables currently featured in the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts. It is shown that each of the major chain-aggregates—output, consumption, investment, and capital stock—will tend in the long run to grow at steady, but different, rates. Implications for empirical analysis based on these data are explored.