Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates
通过比较美联储与商业机构的通胀预测，证明美联储拥有更多信息，且货币政策行动会传递信号，商业预测者据此调整预测，这有助于解释紧缩政策为何常推高长期利率。
This paper tests for the existence of asymmetric information between the Federal Reserve and the public by examining Federal Reserve and commercial inflation forecasts. It demonstrates that the Federal Reserve has considerable information about inflation beyond what is known to commercial forecasters. It also shows that monetary-policy actions provide signals of the Federal Reserve's information and that commercial forecasters modify their forecasts in response to those signals. These findings may explain why long-term interest rates typically rise in response to shifts to tighter monetary policy.