Earning from History?: Financial Markets and the Approach of World Wars
探讨金融市场是否充分重视地缘政治风险，通过分析两次世界大战和冷战对金融的不同影响，指出军事技术和监管体制的变化降低了历史经验的参考价值，投资者可能因长期和平而自满。
Are world financial markets paying due heed to geopolitical risk? Despite unchallenged U.S. military supremacy, the financial consequences of a terrorist nuclear strike, or war in the Middle East or the Taiwan Strait—or some totally unforeseen conflict—could still be enormous. That globalization under a powerful hegemon has strengthened linkages among national economies may not rule out another major war: such linkages were also strong on the eve of World War I, which thus caught investors off guard. Investors try to learn from history, but the very different financial impacts of the two world wars and the Cold War reveal the tendency of military technology and regulatory regimes to shift significantly, reducing the relevance of past experience. Any lessons investors might take from the last war could have limited relevance for the next—or be forgotten after a generation of relative peace has led to complacency.