Valuing Water Supply Reliability
探讨了在供水成本较高时，追求完全可靠的供水系统并非最优，并报告了消费者对当前和未来供水短缺的意愿支付估值，使用期望效用模型检验其一致性。
Abstract Instead of creating water supply systems that fully insulate mankind from climate‐imposed water deficiencies, it is possible that for municipal water systems a nonzero probability of water supply shortfall is efficient. Perfect water supply reliability, meaning no chance of future shortfall, is not optimal when water development costs are high. Designing an efficient strategy requires an assessment of consumer preferences pertaining to the reliability of water supply. Contingent valuations of both current and future shortfalls are reported. The consistency of these measures is gauged using an expected utility model.