Entry, Exit, Embodied Technology, and Business Cycles
研究了美国制造业工厂在经济周期中的进入和退出，发现体现技术变革的冲击是经济波动的重要来源，并用一个体现技术进步的旧机器模型复现了这些模式。
This paper studies the entry and exit of U.S. manufacturing plants over the business cycle and compares the results with those from a vintage capital model augmented to reproduce observed features of the plant life cycle. Looking at the entry and exit of plants provides new evidence supporting the hypothesis that shocks to embodied technological change are a significant source of economic fluctuations. In the U.S. economy, the entry rate covaries positively with output and total factor productivity growth, and the exit rate leads all three of these. A vintage capital model in which all technological progress is embodied in new plants reproduces these patterns. In the model economy, a persistent improvement to embodied technology induces obsolete plants to cease production, causing exit to rise. Later, as entering plants embodying the new technology become operational, both output and productivity increase.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: L16, E22.