The Mexican Peso Crisis: Sudden Death or Death Foretold?
认为允许自我实现恐慌的可能性有助于理解墨西哥危机，指出在政府耗尽储备并积累短期美元债务后，自我实现的预期才成为恐慌的关键，并建立模型解释多重均衡的条件，论证1994年更紧缩的财政货币政策是合理的。
We argue that allowing for the possibility of a self-fulfilling panic helps in understanding several features of the recent Mexican crisis. Self-fulfilling expectations became decisive in generating a panic only after the government ran down gross reserves and ran up short-term dollar debt. We present a simple model to explain how and why multiple equilibria can occur for some levels of reserves or debt, but not for others. Lastly, we argue that the imperfect credibility of Mexican exchange rate policy made it advisable to follow more contractionary fiscal and monetary policies in 1994. Our model formalizes the reasons why this is so.