Keynesian impulses versus Solow residuals: identifying sources of business cycle fluctuations
使用新古典商业周期模型，通过贝叶斯方法估计投资效率冲击和全要素生产率冲击，发现两者对理解波动都重要，但全要素生产率冲击是衰退开始和结束的主要原因。
We employ a neoclassical business-cycle model to study two sources of business-cycle fluctuations: marginal efficiency of investment shocks, and total factor productivity shocks. The parameters of the model are estimated using a Bayesian procedure that accommodates prior uncertainty about their magnitudes; from these estimates, posterior distributions of the two shocks are obtained. The postwar US experience suggests that both shocks are important in understanding fluctuations, but that total factor productivity shocks are primarily responsible for beginning and ending recessions. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.