THE CYCLICAL EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY REGIMES*
发现1979年美国货币政策变化后货币总量的周期行为发生断裂，而其他变量保持稳定；通过模型估计，货币政策反应函数解释了72-95%的观测变化。
A 1979 change in U.S. monetary policy coincided with a break in the cyclical behavior of monetary aggregates, while the cyclical behavior of all other real and nominal variables remained relatively constant. A model is developed to assess the quantitative importance of a change in monetary policy in accounting for these observations. The monetary authority's reaction function is estimated conditionally on the theoretical model and accounts for upward of 72–95% of all observed changes, including inside money preceding the business cycle and a qualitative change in the cyclical behavior of the monetary base.