Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market
研究人口结构对股市市盈率的影响，通过一个随机世代交叠模型生成周期性市盈率，并用历史数据校准模型，证明人口可预测性可传导至股市回报。
Stock market price/earnings ratios should be influenced by demography. Since demography is predictable, stock returns should be as well. We provide a simple stochastic OLG model with a cyclical structure which generates cyclical P/E ratios. We calibrate the model to roughly fit the cyclical features of historical P/E ratios.