Wheat Storage and Trade in an Efficient Global Market
用动态理性预期模型分析美国和欧盟主导的世界小麦市场，发现政府过去的库存行为不符合市场效率，取消出口补贴对出口影响不大但能节省大量税收。
Abstract Domestic and international linkages in speculative stockholdings and trade of wheat are analyzed using a dynamic rational expectations model of the world wheat market dominated by the U.S. and the EU. The results demonstrate the importance of endogenizing both storage and trade in studying commodity markets and suggest that past government stockholdings have not followed efficient market outcomes. Results indicate that elimination of the Export Enhancement Program by the U.S. and of export restitution payments by the EU are unlikely to have a major impact on wheat exports from the two regions but will save millions of tax dollars in both regions.