Evaluating alternative price expectation models for multiproduct supply analysis
针对多产品供给模型，提出一种在非嵌套替代模型间选择价格预期机制的综合方法，通过预测精度、非嵌套假设检验和样本外预测能力评估九种价格与政策信息设定，发现仅靠预测精度选择价格预期代理不可靠。
Neoclassical economic theory provides an important conceptual framework for the analysis of agricultural production. Theory provides little guidance, however, in the actual specification of empirical models. This paper applies an integrated approach for choosing between price expectation mechanisms in a multiple-equation model when the alternatives are non-nested. Nine alternative specifications of market price and policy information are developed. Price forecasting accuracy, non-nested tests of hypotheses, and out-of-sample predictive accuracy are examined for agricultural production in Iowa. The results call into question the reliability of using forecasting accuracy as the sole guide to selecting a price expectation proxy.