Malthus Was Right after All: Poor Relief and Birth Rates in Southeastern England
检验马尔萨斯关于儿童津贴导致出生率上升的假说，利用1826-30年英格兰教区数据发现出生率与津贴、收入和住房可得性相关，并探讨1795年后津贴政策对生育率上升的作用。
The payment of child allowances to laborers with large families was widespread in early nineteenth-century England. This paper tests Thomas Malthus's hypothesis that child allowances caused the birth rate to increase. A cross-sectional regression model is estimated to explain variations in birth rates across parishes in 1826-30. Birth rates are found to be related to child allowances, income, and the availability of housing, as Malthus contended. The paper concludes by examining the role played by the adoption of child allowances after 1795 in the fertility increase of the early nineteenth century. Copyright 1989 by University of Chicago Press.