Risk Behavior and Rational Expectations in the U.S. Broiler Market
将理性预期假说扩展到包含价格不确定性，使用GARCH模型生成时变预期，发现价格方差的理性预期是美国肉鸡供给的重要决定因素。
Abstract This study examines the empirical implications of extending the rational expectations hypothesis (REH) to include price uncertainty. A general estimation framework that incorporates both the restrictions on structural parameters and the variance‐covariance terms is developed. GARCH time‐series processes are used to generate time‐varying expectations of both the means and the variances of exogenous variables. The empirical application is with a quarterly model of the U.S. broiler industry; the results indicate that the rational expectation of price variance is an important determinant of broiler supply. A formal test indicates that the restrictions implied by the REH cannot be rejected.