Did Household Consumption Become More Volatile?
研究发现，在剔除利率、偏好和收入冲击等可预测变化后，1970年至2004年间美国家庭消费波动性上升了25%，非白人和低教育群体增幅更大，主要源于财富和信贷市场差异。
I show that after accounting for predictable variation arising from movements in real interest rates, preferences and income shocks, liquidity constraints and measurement errors, volatility of household consumption in the US increased by 25 percent between 1970 and 2004. The increase was lower than that of volatility of family income. Nonwhite and those with less than 13 years of education, for whom there was no differential increase in income volatility, experienced a significantly larger increase in volatility of household consumption. Substantial differences in wealth and access to credit markets point to the main reason for this divide.