Modeling the Transition to a New Economy: Lessons from Two Technological Revolutions
构建了一个量化模型，研究技术革命后向新经济转型过程中的技术扩散与增长，并用美国制造业工厂生命周期数据校准模型，发现转型特征依赖于转型前对旧技术的知识积累。
Many view the period after the Second Industrial Revolution as a paradigm of a transition to a new economy following a technological revolution, including the Information Technology Revolution. We build a quantitative model of diffusion and growth during transitions to evaluate that view. With a learning process quantified by data on the life cycle of US manufacturing plants, the model accounts for the key features of the transition after the Second Industrial Revolution. But we find that features like those will occur in other transitions only if a large amount of knowledge about old technologies exists before the transition begins.