Age–period–cohort decomposition of aggregate data: an application to US and Japanese household saving rates
比较了两种分解总量数据中年龄、时期和队列效应的方法，并应用于美国和日本家庭储蓄率，发现时期效应对美国影响可忽略，对日本影响显著。
Abstract This paper compares two methods of analyzing aggregate data that is classified by period and age. Because there is a linear relationship among age, period, and cohort, it is not possible to distinguish the separate effects without employing an identifying assumption. The first method, which is applied in the economics literature, assumes that period effects are orthogonal to a linear time trend. The second method, which is applied in the statistics literature, assumes that the effect parameters change gradually. Simulation results suggest that the performances of both methods are comparable. The results of applying the second method to household saving rates suggest that period effects had a negligible influence in the United States but considerable influence in Japan. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.