Intertemporal Wage Variation, Employment, and Unemployment
构建了一个不确定性下的劳动力供给模型，分析临时性和持续性工资变化对当前劳动供给的影响，发现个体工资增长会导致跨期劳动替代估计偏低，而使用短期行业工资脉冲可避免此偏差，并认为跨期替代对失业周期变化的作用被低估。
A model of labor supply under uncertainty is developed, and comparative statics of current labor are carried out with respect to temporary and persistent wage change. This and a complementary analysis of measurement error suggest that individual wage growth leads to downward-biased estimates of intertemporal labor substitution. An alternative strategy, namely, the use of short-lived industry wage pulses in place of individual wage growth, is free of the above biases. Findings presented in the paper support this point of view. These results also suggest that intertemporal substitution has been undervalued as a source of cyclical changes in unemployment. Copyright 1987 by University of Chicago Press.